After the Spring Festival, first-tier cities prices tiaokonggaokai, and is still in a rising trend. House prices once again replace the stock market as a national concern and hot topic. Sudden rise in prices on the first tier cities such as the sudden rise of the discount rate, to the already changed assets are expected to cast a layer of uncertainty, the future of the housing market will go from here?
Li Xunlei: house prices will be far away?
In the past, housing prices are rising population phenomenon, and the increasing urban population and urban population is more concentrated. Today, the number of population flowing into the city has significantly reduced, only the increase in the money in a substantial increase. So the prices of these years and the share price in 2015, it seems to be a monetary phenomenon, or the "buffalo" market.
At present, Shanghai, Beijing prices have been close to the level of New York or Tokyo, do not rule out beyond. The reason may be that the number of the rich and the total wealth of more than New York or tokyo. In addition, China's urbanization process has not ended, the large Tokyo's GDP accounted for 30% of Japan's population accounted for nearly 30%, New York's GDP also accounted for about 10% of the United States, the population accounted for about 8%. And Shanghai and Beijing's population accounts for less than 2% of the population, GDP accounted for less than 4%.
But for the other three or four tier cities, the phenomenon of money will not be the sun shines. This is similar to the past 3 years in the stock market, the gem index rose by 3 times, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose only about 50%. Because the population is no longer flowing, the currency is mainly in the first and second tier cities.
Therefore, if you buy a house with leverage, but also to add in the first tier cities, or Hangzhou, Guangzhou and other wealthy people more second tier cities, or the purchase of the purchase is not open, or gambling funds are still gathering.
But since it is a monetary phenomenon, then 2015 stock market lessons should learn that thousands of strands of limit for leveraged investors, too horrible to look at. These hot money to say, come, say go. Therefore, the phenomenon of money is a bubble phenomenon. The stock market is not profitable support, housing prices are not supported.
The real estate market has gone 16 years of bull market, the bull market more than a year, the probability of falling to increase a little. U.S. real estate investment growth peaked in 2000, prices fell in 2006, the subprime crisis broke out in 2008. China's real estate investment growth rate peaked in 2010 (33%), the time I am afraid that prices will not lag too long?
Sun Jianbo: the arrival of the turning point, buy a house to be cautious
Tier cities housing prices soared, the overall need to see three factors. First, the monetary factor, that is, the devaluation of the renminbi is expected and China's domestic price inflation expectations, in the absence of other assets can preserve the value of the case, only to grab the house. Second, social stratification, the city is also layered, good city, good regional prices rose faster. Third, from the point of view of the whole society, the construction industry in a downward inflection point, the construction will fall by more than 50%, so in the next three years, I don't suggest you robbed the house, because devaluation and inflation are controllable, does not appear the malignant, the collapse of the construction industry is almost is inevitable.
From the perspective of the economic cycle, I am very pessimistic about the economy. If we must buy a house, we must examine the prospects of urban planning and business circles. Chinese society began to stratification, in a crisis before the arrival of crazy to buy a house, not a wise move, whether it is a good area or a bad area, prices will fall in the future. However, a good area after falling in the next round of prosperity and rise higher; the bad region in the next round of the cycle is gradually forgotten, the value of the district in the continuous condensation.
In crazy, no matter how good the region, faces downside risks, according to the data of 2014 and 2015, China's total building obviously in top of the inflection point, the next 5 years, whole society total construction will have decline in more than 50%, the economy will bear greater pressure. Decline in the arrival of the inflection point, buy a house or to be cautious.
Yan Changming: real estate big cycle and no top
Real estate is the real essence of monetary phenomenon, population, age, structure, per capita living space, real income than can not determine the large cycle. The trend of the United States and Japan and other countries have indicated that money, money is the real decision to determine the real estate length and length of the decisive factor.
The basic trend of the real estate market is dominated by monetary policy, the administrative regulation and control policy is not dominant. Administrative regulation and control policy is more in the short term to form a shock to fundamentals, in the long run and the fundamentals of dominant factors fit. That is to say the actual effect of the administrative regulation and control policy in the medium and long term is small compared to the. Big cycle did not see the top, small cycle as long as the money continues to drain, the real estate market is bound to continue upward, and the first tier cities and the core of the second tier cities will certainly be better.
Monetary easing in the background, in 2016 the beginning of the year, a substantial payment, there will be a considerable part of the housing market. From the historical data, the strong financial attributes of the region is bound to be more robust. First tier cities land supply is relatively limited, the fundamentals continue to not be reflected in the amount of more, it must be reflected in the price.
As dollar interest rate hike cycle of the real estate market influence, the study shows that the dollar interest rate hike cycle will indeed have a certain negative effect on some of the national real estate market, but mainly complete opening of the capital account in the countries and regions. Historical cases show that the capital account is relatively closed country, the impact is very small. This is why prices will fall in Hongkong, but China's first tier cities housing prices continued to rise because of the reasons. Because this is the capital account under the two different assets, there is no basis for price linkage, geographical connection is not any point.
Guo Lei: real estate is the largest supply side
For China's economic growth model, a consensus is obvious constraints on the supply side. But the largest supply side constraints are not excess capacity, but the cost of factors. Factor costs rise faster than the national income growth, the growth dividend will be fast convergence, China's economy will gradually face can not afford the heavy.
May the factor cost impute to wages, but in fact, China's wage growth only slightly higher than the GDP, and which to a large extent is the Lewis turning point to promote. Far higher than the GDP growth rate, is the cost of land prices and land prices.
One of the characteristics of China's economy is in the previous cycle of deflation, land prices and housing prices have failed to effectively adjust, which in most cases are just at the beginning of the adjustment period estate stimulus interrupted, so real estate seems to become a "floor" of the financial derivatives. This experience for the residents of the capital allocation, they formed a "housing prices will only rise will not fall," the impression that the residents of real estate investment and speculation habits entrenched. Thus, real estate with more financial product attributes, the price elasticity becomes more than the general supply and demand decisions will be higher. Based on land leasing revenue and financial considerations of local government, but also to see prices rise. Prices as economy upstream cost is more push higher, has gradually become the economic area.
High house prices will not only ban manufacturing space, but also worry that will hinder the transformation and innovation. In addition, the implication of financial risks can not be ignored. After the first tier cities housing prices soaring, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other cities core lot price earnings ratio from about 70 times further pushed up to 80-100 times. In the context of the policy to promote the inventory, the leverage ratio and further improve. And residents because of the existence of the universal expectations that prices will continue to rise, in addition to the mortgage loan, part of the consumer loans, P2P products even private lending to participate in financing the purchase link, the financial risk in gradually increasing.
Real estate is the largest supply side. Only the end of the estate cost and speculation is expected to drop down, China's financial risk and system risk will be substantial reduction; made in China cost side can improve, future can be achieved without pressure on asset prices, low bubble growth; sense of innovation and entrepreneurship only survive in soil and public entrepreneurship, innovation and peoples will become a reality.